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In order to maximize collaboration and minimize duplication of effort, the proposed experiment will include a diagnostic sub-project approval process. The following is an abbreviated list of potential sub-projects. It is anticipated that a large number of addition sub-projects will be implemented as the experimental results become available.
- Limit of Predictability Estimates: One potential estimate for the limit of predictability is to determine when a particular forecast probability density function (pdf) is indistinguishable from climatological pdf of the forecasts
- ENSO mechanism diagnostic: Recharge oscillator versus delayed oscillator, role of stochastic forcing, westerly wind events;
- Impact of the AO on seasonal predictability;
- Regional predictability;
- Local land surface predictability;
- Extreme events;
- Monsoon predictability;
- Diurnal cycle in ocean;
- Diurnal cycle in the atmosphere;
- Coupled feedbacks;
- Intra-seasonal oscillations.
The diagnostic sub-projects will also include extensive interactions with the applications community and the regional panels within CLIVAR, GEWEX, SPARC and CliC. These interactions and collaborations are viewed as critical elements of the implementation plan and are strongly encouraged.